Chief Commissioner Professor Flannery commented, “we are very pleased to have Professor Sahajwalla join the Commission. While it is important to talk about the problems we face, of course the silver lining is that we can build better, smarter and cleaner solutions. Veena is at the forefront of the global clean energy revolution and will become our ‘Solutions’ Commissioner.”

Professor Sahajwalla says, “We have to stop talking about the environment versus the economy. We can find innovative solutions that are good for the environment and good for the economy.”

Professor Sahajwalla’s motivations for joining the Commission lie close to home. She commented that, “the health and well-being of my family is the most important thing in my life. The environment we live in is central to our health so I am passionate about securing a healthy environment for my children’s future.”

Dr. Susannah Elliot will step aside for other commitments. Professor Flannery thanked Dr. Elliot for her year of service to the Commission commenting that, “Susannah has contributed tremendously to the Commission and we wish her all the best in her future endeavours”.

The announcement comes as the Climate Commission launches its latest report, The Critical Decade: NSW Impacts and Opportunities at the Opera House in Sydney at 10am. The report is available at www.climatecommission.gov.au

The independent Commission was established to provide an open and trusted source of information on climate change science and solutions. The Commission brings together internationally renowned climate scientists with policy and business leaders.

Follow the Climate Commission on Twitter: @ClimateComm

ursing home residents are evacuated during Newcastle floods in June 2007. Copyright: Fairfax Syndication

NSW is becoming hotter and drier. Record-breaking hot days have more than doubled across Australia since 1960 and heatwaves in the greater Sydney region, especially in the western suburbs, have increased in duration and intensity.

Over the last 40 years much of eastern and southern Australia has become drier. The continuing drying trend increases the risk of longer and harsher droughts. While there will continue to be wet years, the future trend of declining rainfall poses challenges for Sydney’s long-term water security.

This long-term increase in hot and dry weather has made NSW more susceptible to bushfires. Very high fire danger days have already become more frequent, and will occur even more often in the coming decades.

Coastal infrastructure in NSW is vulnerable to flooding from sea-level rise. A 1.1m rise by the end of the century could put between 40,000–60,000 houses, 1200 commercial buildings and 250km of highway in NSW at risk of inundation.

This is the critical decade for action. To minimise climate change risks we must begin to decarbonise our economy and move to cleaner energy sources this decade. The longer we wait the more difficult and costly it will be.

NSW is well-placed to capitalise on the global trend towards clean energy. Globally the clean energy sector attracted $263 billion worth of investment in 2011 and is one of the fastest growing sectors in the world. In Australia $5.3 billion was invested in clean energy in 2011. NSW, with a legacy of innovation and achievement in renewable energy development, has significant opportunities.

Solar panels on Sydney Theatre Company roof provide 70% of their energy needs.

Download the full report: The Critical Decade: NSW Climate impacts and opportunities

Find out more:

• Attend a community forum
• Read The Critical Decade report
• Our reports on climate impacts for the Illawarra/NSW South Coast and New England/Northwest regions

The Climate Commission has found that Australians are more engaged in the climate debate than they’re given credit for.

After spending its first year, travelling regional Australia, the independent Climate Commission has spoken to thousands of people around the country.

Today it will publish a summary of what they’ve heard from the community.

Chief Commissioner Professor Flannery commented that, “After travelling around Australia, it quickly became clear that the political and media debate is not the whole picture. For the most part, we found that people want more than talk and they’re ready for action.”

The Commission has held 15 public forums, 15 business and local leaders forums and launched 10 reports. The Commission has visited 17 different towns and cities in every state and territory across Australia.

“While we certainly heard a diversity of views, we’ve found that most people are concerned about climate change and what it will mean for their family, kids and community.”

“We were surprised at just how interested and engaged Australians are, across the country. Everywhere we went, from Geelong, to Mackay, to Bunbury, to Tamworth we found inspiring examples of communities, coming together to make a difference.”

“The story on the ground is actually much more optimistic and future focused than we often see in the media.”

“We also found that people are looking for more information, about the potential impacts of climate change for their region, about what a carbon price means for them, as well as Australia’s role in the world.”

“We didn’t anticipate just how many Australians want to contribute. The most common question we had at community forums was “what can I do?”

“Many businesses have already planned for a carbon price and we’ve been impressed by the number of companies that are embracing clean energy solutions that make sense for their bottom line and the climate. We’ve also heard concerns in the business community about regulatory uncertainty.”

Read the full report here.

The Climate Commission: Professor Will Steffen, Roger Beale, Professor Lesley Hughes, Professor Tim Flannery, Dr Susannah Elliott and Gerry Hueston

In the Commission’s first year, the Commissioners have met with business and industry leaders, local and state governments, and held community forums and public presentations for thousands of Australians. Through media coverage, social media interaction and the website, the Commission has connected with millions across the country.

This report, Climate Commission: A year in review, is a reflection of what the Commissioners have heard from this broad cross-section of Australians. It is a qualitative assessment of public attitudes.

Australians are concerned about climate change

Most Australians we met were concerned about climate change and thought that Australia should take action to reduce our carbon emissions. While we also met some who do not agree that climate change is caused by human activity, the majority of the people appreciated that carbon pollution is the primary cause.

Feedback from the public forums shows that, overwhelmingly, Australians are concerned about the impact climate change is having on our economy, natural places, our health and our way of life.

Australians want action

Across the country we found that the Australians we met wanted action from the Government and business and wanted to know what action they could take themselves. We also found that most businesses, local governments and community members are eager to contribute to solutions to climate change.

Australians want to be involved

The Commissioners have been encouraged by the appetite displayed all over Australia for people to come together to solve this national challenge. People are inspired and energised by real examples of how individuals are making a difference in their businesses, workplaces, schools, homes and communities. Many people said they were unsure about where to go to find information about the contribution they could make. The Commission will provide tangible examples of business and community action, as well as information for individuals about how to contribute.

Australians want accurate and relevant information

Overall, the Commission has found that Australians are hungry for information on climate change.

An attentive audience at Hobart town hall

Commonly the Commission receives a majority of questions about:

• climate change science
• local and national impacts
• carbon pricing and
• what is happening around the world.

Action on climate change is in our national interest

The Commission has received a lot of questions about Australia’s global role. The Commission will release a report on international action in the coming months, which will explain what other countries are doing and place Australia’s bipartisan commitment on emission reductions in its global context.

In response to community questions about Australia’s actions in an international context, the Commission hosted a range of prominent international experts in 2011, as noted above. The consistent story that we’ve heard from international leaders is that the world is moving. Our trading partners are moving to address climate change and capitalise on clean energy opportunities.

The Commission found its first year enlightening and will use the feedback from the public to move ahead with the mission of providing accurate information and advice on climate change.

Find out more:

• Download the full report: A Year in Review



 Chief Commissioner Professor Tim Flannery was this week elected as a Fellow of Australia’s most prestigious scientific body, the Australian Academy of Sciences. The fellowship was awarded for his work in advancing public awareness and understanding of science.

Climate Commissioner Lesley Hughes commented, “I think I speak for all the Commissioners in congratulating Professor Flannery. This Fellowship reflects years of hard work and commitment.”

Professor Flannery said he was honoured to accept the Fellowship.

The Fellowship of the Academy is made up of 450 of Australia’s top scientists, distinguished in the physical and biological sciences and their applications.

Follow the Climate Commission on Twitter: @ClimateComm

The report was prepared by 220 authors from around the world (including three Australians), and took four years to complete. It has undergone an exhaustive review process, and is an authoritative statement from the IPCC.

Key findings include:

Heat

It is 99% certain that there will be substantial increases in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century. In Australia, there has been an increase in the number of hot days, and a decrease in the number of cold days and this trend is likely to continue, with large scale increases in days over 35°C or 40°C. Heat wave events are likely to become more frequent and persist for longer when they occur.

Precipitation

In some areas of the globe, it is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall that falls as heavy precipitation will increase. In Australia, extreme precipitation is expected to increase.

Drought

Damaged house from Cyclone Yasi. Although there may be less tropical cyclones, they are likely to be stronger and cause more damage. Photo source: Flickr/Kenski1970

Some areas of the globe will experience longer and more intense drought. In Australia, there has been a drying trend in south-eastern and south-western Australia since the mid-20th century. Dry spells are likely to get longer in southern Australia.

Fire

Extreme fire danger days are expected to rise more than 15% in south-east Australia. The window of opportunity for fuel reduction burning will shift towards winter.

Cyclones

Tropical cyclone wind speed is likely to increase but the number of cyclones may decrease or remain unchanged. That is, there may be fewer cyclones, but they are likely to be stronger and cause more damage. In Australia, there is still some uncertainty about regional trends in cyclone activity. However, the strength of cyclones is likely to increase and they may come further south.

Sea-level rise

Extreme coastal high water levels are very likely to increase as sea levels continue to rise. This can worsen the effects of erosion, inundation and storm surges.

Disaster recovery

Extreme events will affect sectors which have a stake in climate such as tourism, water security, agriculture, forestry and health. Post-disaster recovery and reconstruction can provide an opportunity for reducing risk and improving adaptive capacity. The most effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction actions offer development benefits in the short term, and a reduction in vulnerability over the long term.

Watch the IPCC’s video on climate change and extreme events:

Find out more:

• Download the full IPCC report
• Read Will Steffen’s article on Droughts, floods and climate change
• Read the World Meteorological Organisation’s report on the status of global climate 2011

The WMO found that in 2011 the global mean surface temperature was the highest recorded in a La Nina year. At 0.4°C above the long term average, this represents the eleventh warmest year on record.

Globally the amount of rain and snow falling in 2011 was the second highest on record over land. However, there was a marked difference between wet and dry regions, with some areas of intense flooding and some areas of intense drought.

Australia saw its second wettest year on record, with 52% higher rainfall than normal. Cyclone Yasi was the globe’s most intense landfall cyclone in 2011 and Australia’s most intense landfall cyclone since 1918. The Perth region experienced destructive fires in February and November, with the former causing the worst property damage in WA since 1961.

While Australia was wet, other parts of the world experienced extreme heat and drought:

• The mean annual temperatures were up to 5°C above normal in parts of the Arctic coast, and Arctic sea ice cover was well below average in 2011, with the second lowest seasonal minimum. 
• The United States broke a number of heatwave records, including the highest mean summer temperature recorded and records for the number of days above 37.8°C. 
• France, Spain, Switzerland, Brussels and Luxembourg reported their warmest years on record. 
• East Africa saw a severe drought that began in late 2010 and continued through most of 2011, which caused a humanitarian disaster. Significant famine and population displacement necessitated meant approximately 13 million people required humanitarian aid. 

Find out more:

• World Meteorological Organisation
• Read the Commission’s report: The science behind southeast Australia’s cool, wet summer
• Read Will Steffen’s article: Droughts, floods and climate change

However, it has always been wise to a take a long-term perspective and to acknowledge that a few wet years don’t mean that we’ll never see a severe drought again. Furthermore, with climate change now in the mix, it is even more important to take a broader, long-term perspective. Climate change is influencing more than just droughts, as the recent CSIRO-Bureau of Meteorology State of the Climate 2012 report clearly outlines.

Temperatures over land and in the oceans continue to increase rapidly, sea levels are rising, and extremely hot days have become more common. But it is the recent period of very wet, cool weather bringing floods to many parts of Australia that has grabbed the most attention in the last few months.

The Climate Commission’s report on the science behind southeast Australia’s wet, cool summer provides the broader, long-term perspective needed to understand the significance of the Big Wet.

The 2010-2011 period was the wettest two-year period on record in Australia. The exceptionally high rainfall was driven by back-to-back La Niña events, the phase of natural climate variability that periodically brings heavy rainfall to eastern Australia. 

La Niña events are associated with higher-than-average sea surface temperatures around Australia, which lead to higher rates of evaporation from the surface ocean and more water in the air for rainstorms. In fact, the sea surface temperatures to the north of Australia during the spring and early summer of 2010-2011 were the highest on record, very likely contributing to the amount and intensity of the rainfalls.

The very high sea surface temperatures were also, in part, a result of the underlying global warming trend. We are not only seeing increasing temperatures over land, but the surface waters of the ocean are also heating up. For this reason, many scientists are concerned that global warming may have contributed to the strength of the La Niña event and thus to the heavy rainfall and flooding.

In the longer term, it is likely that the wet years of 2010 and 2011 were only a short interruption in the drier conditions we’ve observed in southeast Australia over the past 40 years. The bulk of the rain in the past two years fell in spring and summer, not in the normal autumn-winter period of wetter conditions that typifies the southeast’s climate. Changes in the timing of rainfall, not just the amount, have important consequences for farming and water resources.

The drop in autumn-winter rainfall, primarily since the mid-1990s, is associated with a southwards shift of the rain systems from the Southern Ocean that normally provided the rain for this season. This same shift is largely responsible for the reduction in autumn-winter rainfall in southwest Western Australia. 

This emerging pattern of long-term drying across southern Australia, exacerbated by hot days and weeks and periodically interrupted by very intense rainfall and flooding, comes as no surprise to climate scientists. It is entirely consistent with what we expect from a changing climate.

How will droughts and floods change in the future?

Again, a long-term perspective is essential. Extended dry periods are expected to increase in southwest and southeast Australia by the end of this century, increasing the risk of drought.

On the other hand, it is more likely than not that heavy rainfall events will also become more frequent across much of Australia. So when long dry periods are interrupted by welcome periods of wet weather, the rain is more likely to fall as heavy downpours than as extended drizzle.

It is virtually certain that the global average temperature will continue to rise through the 21^st century. This is likely to increase the number, length and intensity of heat waves over many regions of Australia. Very hot days coupled with extended dry periods create significant stress for plants and animals, and pose serious risks for human health and well-being.

The quintessential Australian climatic pattern of intense droughts and flooding rains will still be with us in the future. But the added risks associated with climate change make it even more important that we plan and act on a careful analysis of the risks that climate variability and climate change together bring.

The magnitude of these risks ultimately depends on the effectiveness of global emission reduction efforts, including by Australia. The transition to a clean energy economy, which is gathering speed in many parts of the world, gives us great hope that we can minimise these potential risks.

Professor Will Steffen

Climate Commissioner and Executive Director, ANU Climate Change Institute

Find out more:

• Read the Climate Commission’s report, The science behind southeast Australia’s cool, wet summer
• Read the CSIRO and BoM report, The State of the Climate 2012

This article was first published in The Australian, 19 March 2012.

Key facts:

1. For many years scientists have painted a clear picture: that the Earth’s surface is warming rapidly and the climate is changing. Global average temperature has continued to rise over the last decade. 2011 was the warmest La Niña year on record and warmer than all but one year of the 20th century.
2. The quintessential Australian cycle of intense droughts and flooding rains will continue into the future. Across the south, heavy rainfall events will still occur, and high summer rainfall events will continue to be a feature of the climate. However, on average, the south of the continent will likely be drier in the future compared with the early to mid twentieth century, particularly so in the cool months of the year. These changes pose substantial risks to agriculture, water security, natural systems, the Australian economy and our way of life. To minimise these and other risks associated with a changing climate, we, and other countries around the world, must rapidly reduce carbon emissions and move to clean energy sources.
3. Scientists have observed changes to when, where and how much rain falls across Australia. Over the last 40 years much of eastern and southern Australia has become drier. There have been wet years, but the long-term trend in the southwest, and more recently in the southeast, has been declining rainfall. Most of the record rainfall across Australia over the last two years came during spring and summer. This contrasts strongly to the normal rainfall season, which runs from April to November across the south of the continent. Drier than average conditions persisted across southern Australia in 2011 during late autumn and early winter period (April to June). This is consistent with significant drying over autumn and winter which has occurred in the southwest since the 1970s and the southeast since the mid-1990s. It is more likely than not that heavy rainfall events will also become more frequent.
4. Climate change cannot be ruled out as a factor in recent heavy rainfall events. The Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) around northern Australia during the spring and early summer of 2010–2011 were the highest on record. This has very likely contributed to the exceptionally heavy rainfall over much of Australia in the last two years. La Niña events bring high SSTs to the seas around northern Australia, but warming over the past century has also contributed to the recent record high SSTs. 
5. Recent rains have not been able to make up for the decade of dry conditions with many regions of Australia still experiencing drier than average conditions. Averaged from 1970, and even just the past 15 years, the southeast and southwest, Tasmania and the southeast Queensland coast show an overall drying trend. Rainfall in over half of Victoria and about three-quarters of Tasmania remains at very much below average.
6. The wetter conditions experienced in southeastern Australia in the last two years are consistent with scientists’ knowledge and understanding of how the climate is changing in the long term.

Find out more:

• Download the full report, The science behind southeast Australia’s wet, cool summer
• Read Will Steffen’s article on droughts, floods and climate change.



There has been some confusion in the media over the last few days regarding the role of the Climate Commission. The following statement should clarify the Commission’s role.

The independent Commission was established in early 2011 to provide an open and trusted source of information on climate change science and solutions. The Commission brings together internationally renowned climate scientists with policy and business leaders.

The Commission has no role in providing recommendations to government or government bodies, or in making decisions.

The Commission does not:

• Provide suggestions or guidance to the government; 
• Have a role in providing advice to the government on any aspect of carbon pricing; 
• Have the authority to recommend or set emission reduction targets; 
• Make recommendations to the Climate Change Authority or other public bodies.

The Climate Commission provides accurate and authoritative information on climate change to the Australian public. Activities include:

• Creating relevant and targeted information products;
• Holding public outreach events; 
• Holding community, business and industry events.

The Commission provides briefings on its reports to politicians of all sides, public bodies, companies and the community. However, it is important to note that these reports provide information and do not provide policy recommendations.

Download this media release.

Follow the Climate Commission on Twitter: @ClimateComm.